Apple Watch Creates Short Selling Opportunity In These Watchmakers

While investors are scrambling to figure out which companies will benefit from the introduction of Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) watch, it may be easier to figure out who the losers are. While high end watchmakers like Richemont and Swatch aren’t likely to be significantly impacted given that they target rich people with very expensive watches (ranging from cheap Michael Kors $3,000 $20,000), players operating in the middle part of the market are likely to suffer. cheap michael kors Today I will discuss Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) and Fossil (NASDAQ:FOSL). Mid market ($150 500) watches comprise a significant part of their revenues/profits and encroachment by Apple can only be viewed as negative.

There are a number of reasons to be bearish on Garmin. Firstly, it befuddles me that anyone purchases a portable navigation system for their vehicle, yet these still represent nearly 50% of Garmin’s revenue and 30% of operating profit. As long as smartphones continue to offer free navigation systems, I can’t imagine that this segment ever grows (it has declined for years) and expect it will continue to decline at a fairly rapid clip. Thus far, this decline has been offset cheap Michael Kors handbags by growth in other segments, including Garmin’s fitness business which is mainly watches used by runners and cyclists (this segment is expected michael kors outlet to represent 24% of expected 2014 operating profit and 28% of 2015 expected operating profit). The Apple Watch is a digital watch which is very similar to those offered by Garmin and is a direct competitor. The introduction of the Apple Watch (as well as similar products from Samsung) is likely to pressure both volumes and prices and could cause a significant decline in both revenue and cheap Michael Kors handbags operating profit.

While it seems this is fairly obvious, Garmin’s stock sells at nearly 18x expected 2014 earnings. Instead of trading at a premium to the overall market (which trades at 16x), I believe Garmin should trade at a meaningful discount somewhere around 12x earnings. Further, while Wall Street analysts are expecting EPS to grow 3% in 2015, I believe EPS could fall 10 20% if fitness watches decline 10% instead of growing while margins compress (and assuming continued declines in navigation). If Garmin earns $2.65 in 2015 ( 14% instead of +3%) Replica Michael Kors Handbags and was valued at 12x earnings, shares would trade for just $32 per share, a 40% discount michael kors handbags to today’s price.

Fossil seems an appropriate name for a company whose best days may very well be behind it. While Fossil watches are analog and targeted toward the fashion oriented (rather than performance based customers or those who simply like gadgets), I expect that some portion of would be Fossil customers are Michael Kors likely to be drawn to the iWatch. This is likely to put some pressure on Fossil.

Another negative factor for Fossil is the pending cheap Michael Kors handbags renegotiation of the Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) license royalty (top selling brand at Fossil), which is likely to be a negative catalyst for Cheap Michael Kors the stock as Kors was not as strong a brand as it is today when the agreement was signed 10 years ago, meaning that Fossil could have to share more of the economics with Kors. Taking both of these negative factors into account, it seems likely Kors could see earnings decline in 2015 (rather than grow 14% as expected by Wall Street. Assuming a modest 7% decline, Fossil would earn $6.50 rather than the $8 expected by analysts. Assuming the same 12x multiple were applied, Fossil would trade below $80, over 20% below today’s price.

While I don’t know if Apple’s watch will be a winner, it seems probable, if not likely that Garmin and Fossil will be losers.Articles Connexes：